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You're joking if I'd started full time training 10 years ago -not that I had the opportunity and I'll admit it would have had to be a prize in a RW competition or something- I think sub 15. Same for anyone running 17/18 mins 10 yrs ago.
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With elite support and training sub 14:30 maybe  it's all academic anyway because there would be no point in dragging me through elite training to get what is in elite terms a mediocre time 14:30. Just chewing the fat.
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No chance - Big difference between 17 min and sub 15. 17 mins is jogging for me and I will NEVER get near sub 15 if I trained 200 miles a week
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What if it was 10 years ago and you had elite support and training and it was your full time job?
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10 years ago i would have had no chance. 20 camel lights a day not conducive. ....And I dont have the talent
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I will admit to dreaming though can't find the emoticon for it
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10 years ago? Sorry Matt, no chance!
You're a 17 flat guy at best. You've been training for years and would have shown more potential by now, you've raced loads and done many sessions. Maybe low 16s would have been a possibility. (Still could) I can do low 16s at best, and with all the support and praying I reckon mid 15s could be possible for me. I've not got enough speed or ability. That IS a limiting factor.
If a young lad who hardly trains, then turns up and runs a decent time, he's the sort of person who may be able to, if he had the right genetics.
I still think you put this post up to wind people up. Think it worked :-)
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Without talent the training isn't a possibility any way so I guess that's me out even with a time machine 
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Yep!
Same for most of us.
Try and reach "your" potential. It's not sub 14 though!
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I get a kick from going sub-18. Think yourselves lucky you're even able to debate it...
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at the moment sub 20 seems like a bonus for me too.. i can do sub 14mins but thats on a bike..
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Seeing this thread was about sub 14 minutes - I would seriously advise you read "The Renaissance Man" from last Xmas's ACE again. What made Dave run 13:33 - and why most of today's runners aren't even close?
I would suggest:
a) Starting young - in Dave's case 15. I was 11 and so were Martin Haley and Phil Cook.
b) Train hard, methodically and consistently. Quality and quantity in equal measure.
c) Train with others as quick as you, if not quicker (very hard for today's athletes)
d) Not get ill or injured.
Even then - society's values have changed immensely.
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Mick - unfortunately point A rules everyone from the club out. You're right though, but even doing all that almost everyone will fail. But at least you've given your best shot!! Most people wont commit to it.
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Matt I'll try and add a constructive comment here.
You're best 5km road is 16:59 right?
So let's try and predict what you might be worth if you'd started at age 11.
My 5000 PB was 14:38 - and my best aged 40 was 15:23. Slowdown of 45 seconds.
I'd run over 50 marathons and 9 ultras by then - so my speed was already in decline.
Look at the world bests for 5000 track. 12:37 world best, 13:43 age 40 best. 66 seconds difference.
In my humble opinion - that's far more than it should be. Haile would thrash 13:43 if he wanted. Also Bernard Lagat has broken 13 minutes at 37.
My best guess is that you wouldn't have broken 16 minutes - whatever you'd done.
Martin Haley, Phil Cook and myself are useful examples to look at. Although we had different strengths and weaknesses, our track times are remarkably similar - all low 8:20s for 3000, and 2 minutes roughly or quicker for 800 metres.
Even for endurance races, basic speed is an essential commodity. We needed each other - and competition was fierce.
Our half marathon PBs - Martin 65:50, Mick 66:15, Phil 67:12. If Phil had trained harder he would have been much quicker - he was the most talented of the three of us, and I was the most single minded.
The reason why no one from today's membership isn't even close is due to the same reasons why Dave James was so good.
Might have been interesting to know what Martin Rees might have run (PB 65:37), if he'd raced more as a kid.
But then again, the fact that he didn't is one of the reasons why he's so good now.
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Looking at this from a factual point of view I was a bit over the top with my estimates of possible 5k times. Day dreaming was never my strong point. Talent is a factor obviously and hard work another. Good coaching and training another one. Maybe the most important is why athletes want to run? Again I am just a layman and I know it but it would be good to have more successful UK endurance athletes. 16:59 is right and I'd be happy with another sub-17. Or maybe sub 16? No only joking, too late for that.
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Matt - dreaming is healthy. I used to dream in school about being an Olympic champion, and after receiving a Guinness Book of Records as a Xmas present at age 13 I wrote in to them saying I wanted to break the world record for non-stop running. We all need to dream - or we'll never achieve.
However - dreams need to be realistic or we'll forever be disappointed.
I think dreaming to be the best athlete you can be is a great dream, and achievable by everyone.
Unfortunately, most athletes don't have the time, support, opportunity or basic knowledge about how to get there.
However, being in a club like ours is at least a helping hand with shared strategies with others and a lot of fun along the way.
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Dreaming is essential you're right and you need to set realistic goals or there's never a reward for the hard work. The club has improved my running and made it more fun. From running round on my own four times a week to racing and team relays, the Gwent League. The company, the socials and the team spirit sweeten the pill alot. Why else would I keep on turning up?
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Just looking back on this thread. I think people being 'realistic' is what holds them back. SMART goals are trash. You NEED to be unrealistic in what you want to achieve and go for something so far 'out there' that it makes you look foolish. Those that make the biggest impression on the world are those that dream of the ridiculous.
Those people are often the ones that achieve. The ones that settle for less, get less...
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Those that make the greatest impressions have talent to begin with. That is the minimum you need.....As Jack Daniels will attest to
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