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Hi All,
Im hoping to get an opinion or two from those who have no doubt had the same dilemma that i'm currently facing.
I’m doing B&B Marathon on Sunday and I really can’t decide what pace to run. Ultimately I'm in the shape to run sub 3.00(recent half PB 1.21.45) on a flat course, but as the course is quite hilly, a more realistic target might be sub 3.15 to give me GFA for London 2017.
The hills are generally between 13 and 22 miles and herein lies my quandary. Do I go off at sub 3.00 pace, with an expectation that I might get sub 3.15 by the time the hills have taken their toll or do I go off at sub 3.15 and trust that I’ll maintain the slower pace better throughout the whole race, hills and all?
A bit of background – my training has gone well, I’ve done 5 x 20 mile runs, including one 22 and I’m pretty strong on hills (Black Cock Inn or Leckwith a regular feature in my training), but inevitably I do slow down a bit.
I know it's a very subjective thing, but if anyone has a view, and the time to air it, i'll be eager to listen!
Thanks
Matt
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Matt, I am not sure you will lose 15 mins from a flat marathon to this marathon......the caveat being i haven't done this course! I personally would go off at your normal marathon race pace & whether the hills are an issue you will find out later. Just remember to keep hydrated & take whatever energy aid you use before you get an issue, so stick to your fuel strategy practiced in training. It sounds like you have done all the right training & i think you would kick yourself for being overly conservative. Though for clarification i will not be setting of at my flat marathon pace for Snowdonia this Saturday(hypocrite!)  Ange Edited by user 19 October 2015 14:14:59(UTC)
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Hi Matt, Glad to see I'm not the only one in a quandry over this. I would also like to try and get a good for age and not just finish the race but as this is only my second marathon (my first being "flat as a pancake Manchester") I really don't know what to expect when I hit the tough bits at latter stage of race. I guess it's a case of start first 15miles at a pace I am comfortable with then see what happens! Carol 
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Matt
As this is a new course, nobody knows about how much the hills will affect you but you need to be aiming for sub 3, which I think is possible for you. 1.21 in Cardiff Half definitely puts you in about 2.54 shape on a flat course and I think an extra 5 minutes allowance still gives you sub 3 just! Last year I did a 1.29 followed by 1.44 in Snowdonia with no half marathon form and more severe hills than Bristol Bath but was not in 1.21 shape. Would think 10 seconds a mile slower than a flat course would be about right for the first half. You will be fine I know Carol too!
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I think this is an interesting challenge and would agree with the points already made. Although a new course I would be trying to envisage as much as possible where the hills are - and by that I mean both up and down. I've no doubt of the potential to misjudge the severity of the second half - I always try to run a defensive first half to a marathon - much better to be going through the field when the going gets tough than the other way round.
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Thanks chaps, very helpful advice. 
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Thank you all for taking the time and effort to respond.
It's helped very much in clearing a few things up in my mind.
Very best of luck to those who are doing either marathon this weekend!
Matt
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